In 2019, the milk powder market is facing a decline in stocks. Dairy companies have begun to seek breakthrough opportunities, such as high-end, segmentation, household consumption, sinking channels, etc., but are these opportunities really effective for milk powder companies? ? It's over half of 2019. What is the performance of the incremental market? Today we analyze the three major trends in the development of the baby powder market from the "Chinese Shoppers Report 2019" jointly released by Bain and Kantar Consumer Indexes: high-end, small brands and new retail.
High-end boosts baby powder market growth
Despite slowing economic growth in 2019, FMCG consumption remains strong. With the recovery of the overall FMCG market, high-end technology is and will continue to play an important role. On the whole, no matter whether the sales volume of the category is growing, flat or falling, high-end technology can be a booster for category growth. Focusing on infant formula, starting in 2018, high-end and ultra-high-end milk powder have begun to explode, whether it is domestic brands or foreign brands, such as Feihexing Feifan, Ausnutria's Gabeite, and Biostime of the Health Group Yuan and Healthy Times organic milk powder, Wyeth Qifu and other high-end positioning categories have made great progress in 2018.
According to analysis, among the categories that achieve "real" high-end, there is a category that promotes high-end in order to cope with the continued decline in penetration, such as many personal care categories, but as can be seen from the figure, the penetration rate of infant formula Higher and growing.
However, the stagnant growth of baby powder sales is not a lie. Nielsen data shows that in the past two years, baby powder has almost not seen the volume driving growth, the sales volume has basically not contributed, and it has lowered the overall sales perspective. More It is through consumption upgrades and new products.
It is also pointed out in the `` Chinese Shopper Report 2019 '' that in the past three years, baby powder has promoted growth through high-end, offsetting the impact of saturation or decline in penetration, and its growth has mainly come from high-end and ultra-high-end products, prices and penetration The rate has increased.
High-end has driven the growth of the baby powder market, but in terms of current market share, the sales of high-end and ultra-high-end products have not accounted for more than half of the share, about 47%, and the remaining 53% of the share is still from the low-end product.
Growth of pure e-commerce channel penetration peaks, new retail formats highlight opportunities
Compared with the decline in the penetration rate of hypermarkets, the growth rate of e-commerce channels is still very strong. Among them, infant formula has a relatively high relative penetration rate of e-commerce and the growth rate of e-commerce penetration is fast, and consumers are concerned about quality Brands often prefer imported goods. In 2018, the e-commerce penetration rate of baby powder distribution reached 52%, an increase of 11% over 2016.
At the same time, we can see that the average selling price of infant formula in the e-commerce channel is different from the average selling price of the category, and the combination of promotions is mainly online.
Of course, in the new retail era, the boundaries between offline and online are becoming increasingly blurred, and the integration of online and offline gives manufacturers more hope. Beinmei CEO Bao Xiufei once said, "The decline in births does not equal the decline in consumption. Creating new services and products under the new retail method, as well as the post-95s, third and fourth tiers of people, new categories, new scenarios, new data, and empowering new consumer groups can give us this industry An important means to bring growth opportunities. "That is to break the limitations of space and time to achieve retail sceneization.
In the new era of consumption, the second echelon of the baby powder market has more opportunities
From the perspective of the whole market of Chinese baby powder, the top 20 brands are still the main contributors to the growth of the market. It can be seen from the figure that the sales of baby powder market in 2018 increased by 26% compared with 2016, and the top 20 brands contributed a large share.
But at the same time, we must also see that in the past three years, the top five brands lost 2% of their baby powder market share, while the top 6-20 brands' market share increased by 2%.
The reason why the second-tier brand in the infant formula market has greater opportunities. In addition to the increase in market share, the second is determined by consumer spending habits. The survey shows that infant formula is a multi-brand preference-brand loyalty interval The representative of the low-frequency and high-frequency online penetration dimension. In the past two years, the multi-brand preference behavior of infant powder consumers is more obvious than two years ago. Second, the multi-brand preference behavior of online consumers is lower than that of offline consumers. More obvious. As more consumers shop online, their multi-brand preferences will increase.
At the same time, starting in 2018, domestic brands are erupting! First, Feihe completed annual sales of 11.6 billion yuan, becoming one of the three ten billion companies in the Chinese baby powder market; second, Yili completed 8 billion sales, and Junlebao and other brands are on the rise.